Article that explains the off season (problems)

[MemorialStadKid]

This is an excellent summation of what I've been trying to say with varying degrees of success.

SOURCE: http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1458622-has-the-orioles-timid-offseason-turned-them-back-into-a-last-place-team

Key points highlighted:

The problem isn't that the Orioles have gotten worse. There's certainly been some movement in and out of Baltimore, but the club's depth chart looks a lot now like it did in late October when the O's put the finishing touches on a surprise 93-win season.

But that's just the thing. The Orioles haven't gotten worse this winter, but they haven't gotten better either. They've stayed the same, and it's clear that the organization's hope is that what held true in 2012 will hold true in 2013.

However, therein lies the big question of just how good the Orioles really were in 2012.

The Orioles had one major strength, and that was their bullpen. It led the American League in wins and saves, and it finished fifth in MLB in ERA while logging close to 550 innings. It was loaded with stud hurlers, and Buck Showalter knew how to pick 'em.

Pretty much everything else about the Orioles screamed mediocrity, beginning first and foremost with their starting pitching. It came around later in the year, but O's starters still finished 20th in baseball in innings pitched, 21st in ERA and tied for 26th with the lowly Boston Red Sox for home runs allowed per nine innings pitched.

And...

Said one National League exec to ESPN's Jayson Stark: "I don't know how they can sit there and say this rotation is good enough to get them back there."

You can get by with subpar starting pitching if you have an elite offense. But though the Orioles offense made like their starting pitching and came around at the end of the year, it never improved to the point of being elite. The O's finished the season ranked 15th in runs, 20th in batting average, 23rd in on-base percentage and 11th in slugging percentage.

And like with the team's starting pitching staff, no major additions have been made to Baltimore's offense. Nate McLouth has been re-signed, but he's slated to back up a (hopefully) healthy Nolan Reimold.

To reiterate a point I've made often since the end of the season, the Orioles led baseball by a mile in what Baseball-Reference.com refers to as "luck" wins, which is simply the difference between a team's Pythagorean record and its actual record.

The Orioles totaled 11 luck wins in 2012. No other team in baseball had more than six, and six of the league's 10 playoff teams had between zero and two luck wins. No other playoff team had more than six luck wins. As such, it's a fairly accurate formula.

My core points are below...

Unless the baseball gods are huge Orioles fans?which is possible?they're going to come back to the rest of the pack in regard to their ability to win the close ones in 2013. Even if they do contend again, they're far more likely to win 60 or 65 percent of their one-run games than 75 percent.

And there's the rub. If the Orioles had won 60 or 65 percent of their one-run games in 2012, they would have finished behind the Tampa Bay Rays in the AL East and missed out on the postseason.

Baltimore's mojo (or whatever you want to call it) was thus more influential than its talent in 2012. If it goes away in 2013, then the club's talent will be forced to fend for itself.

This is where the Orioles' silence this winter could come back to haunt them. They haven't added more talent to a rotation that was a consistent source of frustration in 2012, nor have they added any major bats to a lineup that was up and down all season long.

At this juncture, the best thing the 2013 Orioles have going for them is a full season of Manny Machado and, hopefully, the arrival and immediate impact of Dylan Bundy in their starting rotation.

The rest of the article compares them to the rest of the AL East. We could be in trouble.

MSK

[MemorialStadKid]

The Red Sox are looking at LaRoche.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1459069-boston-red-sox-reportedly-talking-to-free-agent-first-baseman-adam-laroche

[MachadOboutManny]

Seems like a long winded way to say the sky is blue.

What should the Os have done?

:scratchchinhmm:

[MemorialStadKid]

Seems like a long winded way to say the sky is blue.

What should the Os have done?

:scratchchinhmm:

This is an excellent explanation of why standing pat is a horrible idea.

We should have signed a legit 1B/DH big bat. It's not that complicated.

MSK

[sfosfan]

WHAT offseason problems?

Figure out first base- check

Figure out left field - check

Get a second baseman in case Roberts isn't healthy- check

Lock up Showalter for the rest of his life- pending.

It's not so bad, really. Saved a ton of money instead of wasting it on overrated stiffs. I believe next year has a better corp of FA's coming anyways.

[MemorialStadKid]

WHAT offseason problems?

Figure out first base- check

Figure out left field - check

Get a second baseman in case Roberts isn't healthy- check

Lock up Showalter for the rest of his life- pending.

It's not so bad, really. Saved a ton of money instead of wasting it on overrated stiffs. I believe next year has a better corp of FA's coming anyways.

Really?

I see a whole lot of dudes in their 30s.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/02/2014-mlb-free-agents.html

MSK

[Roll Tide]

Seems like a long winded way to say the sky is blue.

What should the Os have done?

:scratchchinhmm:

Your kidding right?

[weams]

This is an excellent explanation of why standing pat is a horrible idea.

We should have signed a legit 1B/DH big bat. It's not that complicated.

MSK

We are very aware of your opinion this matter. I am very glad that Bleacher report agrees with you.

[Frobby]

It boils down to whether you believe in Hammel, Chen, Gonzalez and Tillman -- especially the latter two. If you believe in them, you believe the Orioles will have above average starting pitching. And that's where opinions vary.

[sfosfan]

Really?

I see a whole lot of dudes in their 30s.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/02/2014-mlb-free-agents.html

MSK

Early 30s aint that bad. Over 35, then I'm with you. But I'm ok with the bats we have for one season, especially if Reimold and Roberts are healthy- those two would contributing would be huge. The core hitters aren't that old, and getting better. Just need Wieters to step up.

[MrOrange82]

It boils down to whether you believe in Hammel, Chen, Gonzalez and Tillman -- especially the latter two. If you believe in them, you believe the Orioles will have above average starting pitching. And that's where opinions vary.

The problem is, of course, a lack of lyricism. "Jason Hammel" simply doesn't roll off the tongue like "Harvey Dent."

Also, STFU (in advance) pervs.

Sooo...almost spring, right?

[weams]

The problem is, of course, a lack of lyricism. "Jason Hammel" simply doesn't roll off the tongue like "Harvey Dent."

Also, STFU (in advance) pervs.

Sooo...almost spring, right?

[WietersCorner]

By my count it looks like we have gotten better at: 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, LF, RF, C, and SP.

We have gotten worse at: CF, DH, RP.

I say we have a much better team in 2013 than in 2012.

[MemorialStadKid]

We are very aware of your opinion this matter. I am very glad that Bleacher report agrees with you.

The thing is that so many folks keep behaving as if what I am saying is some outlandish concept. Also, I am glad someone else also "gets" my POV.

I am not saying stuff for the sake of being inflammatory, I just cannot believe the roster still looks like this after the 2012 miracle. I feel we're all going to be very, very disappointed if we don't make any moves to improve the offense.

And we still need at least one TOR starter. There's nothing happening.

MSK

[weams]

The thing is that so many folks keep behaving as if what I am saying is some outlandish concept. Also, I am glad someone else also "gets" my POV.

I am not saying stuff for the sake of being inflammatory, I just cannot believe the roster still looks like this after the 2012 miracle. I feel we're all going to be very, very disappointed if we don't make any moves to improve the offense.

And we still need at least one TOR starter. There's nothing happening.

MSK

I share your passion, but not your anger and disdain.